Vietnam’s rice export sector is poised for a boost in the latter part of 2026 as international market prices rebound and demand surges in key destinations. By mid-August, the country had exported roughly 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with full-year projections reaching around 7.7 million tonnes. While total export earnings are anticipated to be approximately US$3.9 billion—down about 4% from the previous year due to weak prices in the year’s first half—recent price recoveries offer hope for a financial uplift. Since July, rice prices have seen a 5.8% increase year-on-year, and if this upward trend persists, Vietnam could see improved export revenues in the coming months.
Market dynamics on a global scale are expected to further bolster Vietnam’s rice exports. The 2026-27 crop year is projected to experience a supply-demand deficit, potentially pushing global trade to new heights. Additionally, countries may look to bolster their food reserves amid fears of a strong El Niño phenomenon. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice import destination, aims to continue its imports, anticipating around 5.6 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season. China is also ramping up its rice imports, particularly broken rice for animal feed, which presents lucrative opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Beyond these major markets, Vietnam could find additional growth in other regions. Nigeria faces a significant rice supply shortage, and Kenya has temporarily lifted import duties on white rice under a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are also tapping into premium markets, with high-quality and low-emission certified rice fetching over US$1,000 per tonne in areas like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite these positive indicators, Vietnam’s rice industry must navigate several challenges. The Philippines is weighing additional safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other suppliers, potentially raising combined tariffs above 35% and impacting shipments to this critical market. Indonesia’s strong domestic production and high reserves make it unlikely to import rice this year, and Vietnamese rice faces stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in African countries. Moreover, Thailand and Cambodia are intensifying their presence in China and other markets, increasing competition for Vietnamese suppliers.
Additional pressures come from rising costs of fertilizer, transportation, and energy, which weigh heavily on farmers and exporters. The looming threat of El Niño could also lead to drought and saltwater intrusion later in 2026 and early 2027, posing risks to the upcoming winter-spring rice crop. Despite these hurdles, the combination of recovering prices, increased demand, and interest in premium rice products provides a hopeful outlook for Vietnam’s export earnings as the year draws to a close. Nonetheless, tariffs, competition, and weather-related risks remain significant concerns for the industry.