Chavismo May Survive Maduro’s Removal, Historical Patterns Suggest

Security experts are drawing parallels to the transition from Hugo Chávez to Nicolás Maduro, suggesting that the political movement known as Chavismo may survive the current leader’s capture by United States forces. Dr. Carlos Solar from the RUSI think tank noted that when Chávez died, the movement continued under new leadership for another decade and a half.
Solar’s analysis suggests that removing Maduro may not eliminate Venezuela’s political system, with the vice-president and other members of the government entourage potentially stepping in to continue the regime. The historical precedent raises questions about whether the Saturday military operation will achieve its apparent goal of transforming Venezuelan politics or simply reshuffle leadership.
The captured Venezuelan president and his wife Cilia Flores are being transported to New York to face drug trafficking charges, according to US Attorney General Pam Bondi. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the charges relate to narcotics operations, while President Trump stated the couple is aboard a ship bound for the United States for prosecution.
The international community has responded with widespread condemnation of the military strikes, with UN Secretary General António Guterres warning of dangerous precedents. Major powers including China, Russia, France, and Brazil have criticized the operation as violating fundamental principles of sovereignty and international law.
Latin American responses have split along ideological lines, with conservative governments offering support while leftist administrations condemned the intervention. Colombia has mobilized its armed forces due to concerns about refugee flows, and analysts emphasize that even if regime change occurs, there is no guarantee that what replaces the current government will be democratic without sustained international engagement and support.